Markets bet harder on the US-Iran truce surviving October; the strike log disagrees
Two readings fit today's data and neither collapses on its own.
The second is that no agreement has ever been published — no scope, no start time, no monitor, no named official on either side — and the pricing is tracking the absence of a spectacular strike rather than any restraint anyone agreed to.
Weighing both, the second is the more likely (about 60%): a truce…
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