Markets bet the US-Iran pause holds to month-end; the Gulf sky says otherwise
Two readings fit today's Iran data and they imply opposite positioning.
The first is that the shooting has effectively stopped: pricing on the halt continuing to month-end sits near 69%, and pricing on Khamenei's son as head of state at end-2026 near 87% implies traders expect a stable Iranian state rather than a collapsing one.
The second is that nothing has stopped, only…
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