Pricing on the pause lasting to 31 October sits near 69% after a 13-point swing, yet confirmed strikes involving Iran are dated today and Gulf military flights keep hiding their identities.

Two readings of the US-Iran file are both live and they cannot both be right.

The first: a real if unannounced standstill is in place, the residual strikes are edge-of-conflict actions, and the near-69% pricing reflects a negotiating track that has not surfaced in…

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