Markets bet the US-Iran war has quietly stopped; the Gulf's night traffic disagrees
Two readings fit this morning's data and they point opposite ways.
The first: a genuine but undeclared standstill in the US-Iran war is in force, the overnight thirteen-point repricing reflects it, and the residual Gulf air activity is patrol and sanctions enforcement rather than preparation.
The second: pricing has run ahead of a pause that nobody has put terms on —…
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